US Global Tariff Rises to 15%: What Importers Need to Do Right Now
Published: March 7, 2026 | TariffsCost Team
The biggest tariff week of 2026: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on March 4 that the universal US tariff on global imports is rising from 10% to 15% "sometime this week." At the same time, a federal court ordered the government to refund tariffs already collected under emergency powers. The rules changed twice in one week — here's what that means for your bottom line.
The 15% Global Tariff: What Changed and When
The Trump administration initially imposed a 10% universal baseline tariff on most imports from all countries using emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). That rate is now rising to 15%.
Treasury Secretary Bessent made the announcement on March 4, 2026, saying the increase would come "sometime this week." He also suggested the elevated rate could come back down within 5 months as trade deals are negotiated.
What the 15% Rate Covers
The 15% rate applies broadly — but additional tariffs stack on top for specific countries and products:
| Country/Category | Base Rate | Additional Tariffs | Total Effective Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Most countries | 15% | None | ~15% |
| China (general goods) | 15% | Section 301 (7.5-25%) | 22.5-40% |
| China (strategic goods) | 15% | Section 301 + Section 232 | 65-115% |
| Mexico (non-USMCA) | 25% | — | 25% |
| Canada (non-USMCA) | 25% | — | 25% |
| Steel/aluminum (all) | 50% | — | 50%+ |
Note: This is a moving target. Check TariffsCost for real-time calculations for your specific products and countries.
The Section 122 Transition
In February 2026, the administration also replaced some IEEPA-based tariffs with a Section 122 Temporary Import Surcharge — a statutory mechanism that doesn't require the same emergency power justification. The Section 122 authority allows the President to impose surcharges up to 15% for up to 150 days in response to trade balance emergencies. This transition is significant because it may be on firmer legal footing than the IEEPA tariffs.
The Court Ruling: You May Be Entitled to a Refund
Here's the news that got less attention but could be worth real money to your business:
On March 4, 2026, the US Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled that CBP must liquidate all unliquidated entries subject to IEEPA duties without applying those duties. The court had previously ordered automatic tariff refunds with interest in the Eaton case.
What "Unliquidated Entries" Means
When you import goods, customs "liquidates" (finalizes) the entry — determining the exact duty owed. If your entries from the period when IEEPA tariffs were first imposed haven't been finalized yet, the court is saying: you owe zero IEEPA duties on those entries.
For entries already paid: - CBP confirmed it is building a refund system - A court filing stated the system will be ready within 45 days (by approximately April 18, 2026) - Refunds will include interest
Who Qualifies for a Refund?
You may be entitled to a refund if: 1. You paid IEEPA tariffs on imports between when they were first imposed and the court ruling date 2. Those entries are still "unliquidated" (not yet finalized by CBP), OR 3. You paid duties on entries that the court later determined should not have been subject to IEEPA
Action required: Contact your customs broker immediately to: - Identify your unliquidated entries from the IEEPA tariff period - Document all IEEPA duty payments with exact amounts and dates - Prepare to file a protest if your entries were liquidated with IEEPA duties applied - Monitor CBP's CSMS bulletins for the refund filing instructions
Immediate Steps Every Importer Should Take
Given the dual shock of higher tariffs AND potential refunds, here's your action list for this week:
1. Calculate Your New Landed Costs
The jump from 10% to 15% sounds small but adds up fast. On a $100,000 shipment, that's an extra $5,000 in duties. Model this against your margins before your next purchase order.
Use TariffsCost's calculator to get updated landed cost estimates with the 15% baseline factored in.
2. Identify Qualifying Entries for Refunds
Pull your import records from the past 12 months. Ask your customs broker: - Which entries have been liquidated vs. unliquidated? - What was the IEEPA component of each duty payment? - Are you within the protest period (typically 180 days from liquidation) for liquidated entries?
3. Consider Country Diversification
At 15% baseline, the math on alternative sourcing shifts. Countries like Vietnam, India, and South Korea that don't face China-level Section 301 tariffs now look considerably more attractive.
For products currently manufactured in China: - Vietnam: 15% baseline (down from China's 40-45% combined rate) - India: 15% baseline (reduced from 25% after the Russia oil deal) - Mexico (USMCA): Potentially 0% with proper origin qualification
4. Review Your HTS Classifications
With rates this high, mis-classification costs real money. Products in the wrong HTS code could be paying more than required — or worse, underpaying and facing penalties. Have a licensed customs broker audit your top 20 HTS codes.
5. Update Your Pricing Models
If you've been absorbing tariff costs, the 50% increase in the baseline rate (from 10% to 15%) may force a pricing conversation. Get ahead of it now rather than after your next quarterly review.
How Long Will 15% Last?
Bessent indicated the elevated rate could return to prior levels "within 5 months" as trade deals are negotiated — which would put a possible rollback around August 2026. But that's not guaranteed:
- Optimistic scenario: Trade deals with EU, Japan, South Korea reduce rates; global tariff drops back to 10% or below by mid-2026
- Base case: 15% rate holds through at least Q3 2026; some bilateral deals reduce country-specific rates
- Pessimistic scenario: Rates escalate further if court challenges succeed (forcing the administration to use new authorities at higher rates)
Recommendation: Don't assume rates will fall. Plan for 15% for at least 6 months, and model scenarios for higher rates in your contingency planning.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is the 15% tariff in addition to existing tariffs on China?
A: Yes. The 15% baseline stacks on top of Section 301 tariffs and Section 232 tariffs for China. China's effective rate remains among the highest.
Q: When exactly did the 15% rate take effect?
A: As of this writing (March 7, 2026), the rate is expected to have taken effect this week. Check CBP's CSMS system for the exact effective date and any transition provisions.
Q: If I have a shipment in transit, what rate applies?
A: Generally the rate at time of entry (when the goods arrive at the US port), not the rate when you ordered them. Expediting or delaying can sometimes be worth the calculation.
Q: How do I receive my tariff refund?
A: CBP is building the electronic filing system now. Expected to be operational by mid-April 2026. Work with your customs broker to prepare your documentation now so you're ready to file on day one.
Q: Can I get a tariff exclusion from the 15% rate?
A: The administration has not announced a formal exclusion process for the Section 122 surcharge. Watch for announcements — some past tariff regimes included product-specific exclusions that could significantly reduce costs.
Run Your Numbers
Every business is different. Use TariffsCost to: - Calculate exact tariff rates for your specific products with the new 15% baseline - Model alternative sourcing costs vs. staying with current suppliers - Run scenarios for further rate changes - Generate professional reports for your finance and procurement teams
Try TariffsCost Free → China and Mexico analyses included at no charge.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, customs, or trade compliance advice. Tariff rules are changing rapidly — consult a licensed customs broker for guidance specific to your situation. Sources: Reuters (March 4, 2026), CNBC (March 4, 2026), Court of International Trade ruling, GEODIS Client Updates.